***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 17.8 16.1 158.5 79.0 55.7 4.8 8.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 15.1 21.3 18.2 181.8 82.8 58.8 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.9 21.3 16.5 157.9 78.9 58.4 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 34.7 12.7 177.0 81.9 57.6 5.0 10.7 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 23.7 11.4 156.9 78.6 57.7 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.3 30.7 11.9 155.8 78.5 58.5 4.0 9.7 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.0 13.9 18.2 174.5 81.8 59.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.9 34.0 11.2 139.2 75.2 57.3 8.6 15.8 25.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 18.2 12.7 141.3 75.8 57.9 4.7 8.6 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 26.1 13.2 137.9 75.0 58.7 6.3 11.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.8 19.8 9.5 146.6 76.8 56.2 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.6 26.6 9.4 150.0 77.5 56.8 5.7 10.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.3 19.7 10.2 160.0 79.3 56.5 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.5 28.3 18.8 140.7 75.6 56.5 5.8 11.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 20.0 11.1 179.3 82.1 50.9 2.4 5.7 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.0 19.4 9.8 153.4 78.1 56.1 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.0 20.5 17.8 157.7 78.8 56.8 4.8 8.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 22.5 14.8 129.3 73.0 60.1 5.7 10.9 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 18.3 25.3 17.9 181.3 82.6 57.8 6.1 10.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 18.6 14.1 127.7 72.0 56.9 6.8 10.9 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.7 17.7 14.7 153.8 78.1 55.9 5.1 8.4 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.2 25.6 18.0 157.8 78.8 55.5 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.8 21.9 17.2 172.6 81.3 56.4 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.8 19.7 15.4 134.5 74.2 58.1 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.2 28.0 16.4 169.2 80.8 56.2 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.0 14.3 8.0 149.2 77.3 54.4 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.5 34.6 17.3 160.9 79.4 56.5 5.7 11.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 21.8 11.4 171.1 80.8 52.4 3.3 7.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.5 28.2 15.5 127.5 72.4 59.9 14.1 19.3 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.5 24.5 17.8 176.0 81.9 59.0 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------