***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.0 9.7 5.3 69.9 56.7 35.9 3.1 7.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.9 4.6 66.7 54.5 35.4 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.8 5.2 68.8 56.3 35.8 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.4 10.9 5.0 74.1 59.1 35.0 3.5 7.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.6 5.3 81.1 61.6 38.3 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.7 6.1 85.2 61.0 33.5 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.7 5.1 75.1 58.2 38.7 2.5 5.5 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.0 9.8 6.1 78.6 59.6 37.8 4.1 7.4 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.4 5.3 76.7 59.3 38.5 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.5 6.2 75.9 58.9 38.7 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.3 4.9 77.4 59.5 34.7 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.6 9.9 5.3 83.5 61.6 34.9 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.4 7.1 5.9 91.9 64.3 32.8 1.7 4.1 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.2 13.3 7.7 93.3 63.0 40.7 4.2 8.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.0 6.1 3.9 69.5 57.0 29.1 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.0 7.0 5.3 84.2 61.8 32.1 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.5 5.0 67.5 55.5 36.9 2.7 5.4 9.3 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.4 6.9 74.3 57.9 40.2 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.2 4.8 68.1 54.6 34.0 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.7 7.5 76.9 58.4 42.6 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.9 5.0 69.3 56.5 35.9 2.7 5.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.5 7.1 5.7 74.6 57.5 35.6 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.3 6.7 5.7 78.9 58.9 35.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.7 6.5 80.4 59.5 39.2 3.6 7.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.6 8.2 5.6 74.5 58.6 37.4 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.0 6.4 3.9 81.7 60.3 33.5 1.7 4.2 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.3 9.4 5.9 75.8 58.7 38.0 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.8 10.1 4.9 77.0 59.5 31.0 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.0 7.3 74.4 57.8 41.4 4.2 8.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.1 8.0 4.9 72.1 56.6 36.2 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------