***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 71.3 82.0 54.6 137.4 75.7 66.6 33.7 49.0 67.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 61.1 67.7 48.6 132.5 74.2 62.0 32.1 44.3 58.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 65.0 71.9 51.9 133.4 74.2 63.2 34.7 47.3 62.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 74.1 80.3 46.0 134.2 74.2 63.0 32.8 48.6 67.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 61.9 70.0 47.5 138.3 75.4 64.8 31.7 44.3 58.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 60.5 67.6 50.8 131.8 73.7 63.8 27.9 41.4 57.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 56.4 64.5 50.7 135.5 75.3 65.2 27.4 39.5 53.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 81.6 106.3 53.2 134.6 74.9 64.1 57.3 74.5 93.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 58.8 67.1 52.5 139.1 75.8 65.8 31.3 43.0 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 78.9 87.6 56.4 133.6 74.4 63.8 41.6 57.3 75.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 47.6 63.1 44.8 131.2 73.3 62.1 29.7 41.5 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 55.1 77.1 44.0 133.2 74.1 62.5 32.9 48.0 65.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 34.0 49.0 45.8 132.6 73.6 62.6 18.9 28.9 41.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 73.7 90.8 59.3 121.5 69.8 56.6 48.2 65.3 85.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 34.7 57.7 39.2 138.3 75.1 63.2 15.7 27.6 44.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 37.5 52.3 44.0 132.3 73.5 62.8 22.1 32.5 44.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 54.9 58.5 50.2 128.0 72.6 62.0 29.5 40.2 52.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 63.7 78.1 60.5 124.9 71.4 62.1 45.8 58.7 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 53.8 72.4 49.5 132.8 74.2 61.0 34.7 47.8 62.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 59.1 77.0 61.7 129.2 73.6 63.7 40.8 53.9 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 66.8 75.5 53.0 138.5 75.6 65.4 33.1 46.6 62.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 56.4 68.9 49.9 124.4 71.1 58.5 39.0 50.5 64.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 53.0 68.4 51.4 131.2 73.3 60.0 36.8 48.1 61.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 65.8 83.8 54.9 124.9 71.2 60.1 44.1 59.5 77.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 63.7 73.7 57.2 139.9 76.5 66.4 32.2 45.3 60.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 33.6 47.0 35.9 130.3 73.0 60.7 18.8 28.5 40.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 77.1 87.4 58.7 136.6 75.4 66.9 40.5 55.9 73.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 57.1 65.6 44.1 138.4 75.3 64.1 24.1 36.8 52.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 83.2 102.9 62.4 124.9 71.5 62.4 60.3 77.0 95.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 53.9 73.2 50.1 134.8 74.9 63.3 35.8 48.5 63.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------