***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.6 19.8 1.3 74.5 71.0 14.9 15.6 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.2 19.5 1.1 71.5 68.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.0 18.2 19.9 1.2 72.0 68.4 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.6 17.0 1.1 72.6 68.7 11.1 12.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.8 17.3 1.0 70.1 66.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.4 14.5 0.6 65.2 62.1 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.4 19.7 1.3 74.4 70.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.0 8.8 14.7 0.8 67.7 64.1 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 15.8 16.1 17.6 1.1 72.8 69.5 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.7 16.0 15.8 1.0 72.0 68.1 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 14.9 15.5 16.9 0.8 66.5 63.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 12.7 13.1 15.6 0.6 62.0 59.3 11.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.6 15.2 0.5 60.5 58.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.0 17.6 1.4 79.0 74.7 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.3 17.4 18.8 0.9 69.7 65.8 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.8 16.1 0.6 62.3 59.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 16.6 16.9 19.5 1.4 75.9 72.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.2 14.5 15.0 1.1 74.4 69.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.9 19.6 1.1 70.9 67.8 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 10.0 10.3 12.8 0.9 71.0 66.7 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.1 18.9 1.3 74.6 70.8 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.7 16.0 19.6 1.4 76.7 72.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.5 19.5 1.1 71.0 67.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.7 17.5 1.3 77.6 72.8 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.1 18.4 1.2 72.0 68.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.2 14.5 0.5 61.4 58.9 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.6 19.1 1.3 74.9 71.3 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 14.9 15.0 17.4 0.9 70.0 66.0 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.2 13.5 14.3 1.1 74.3 70.0 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.3 19.7 1.1 71.1 68.1 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------