***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 16.4 17.2 20.3 1.7 91.8 86.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 16.4 17.2 20.0 1.5 88.3 82.5 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 18.4 19.2 20.5 1.6 89.2 83.8 16.8 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 13.9 15.0 17.7 1.7 93.5 88.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 14.9 15.8 17.9 1.5 90.6 85.4 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 13.6 14.2 15.2 1.1 87.0 81.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 16.6 17.4 20.1 1.6 89.8 84.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 9.1 9.7 15.3 1.2 87.8 82.1 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.1 16.9 17.9 1.4 89.9 85.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.7 16.2 1.4 90.2 85.0 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.2 17.3 1.2 84.7 79.2 14.3 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.0 16.2 1.1 83.0 77.8 12.3 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.1 15.4 0.8 76.5 72.3 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 16.7 17.8 18.0 1.6 94.0 89.2 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 17.2 17.9 19.3 1.3 88.5 83.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.6 16.5 1.0 81.5 76.7 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 17.1 18.1 20.0 1.8 92.5 86.8 15.6 16.2 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 14.5 15.6 15.5 1.5 93.9 89.2 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 16.3 17.0 20.1 1.5 88.0 82.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 10.3 11.2 13.3 1.4 92.9 88.1 8.8 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 16.0 17.0 19.4 1.6 92.0 86.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 16.1 17.1 20.1 1.8 93.0 86.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 15.7 16.3 20.1 1.5 88.0 82.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 16.5 17.7 17.9 1.6 94.2 89.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 16.0 17.0 18.9 1.7 92.3 87.0 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.1 15.1 1.0 82.9 78.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 16.2 17.4 19.6 1.8 93.1 87.9 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 15.0 15.8 18.1 1.5 90.1 84.8 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 13.3 14.3 14.8 1.5 93.2 88.1 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 16.7 17.4 20.2 1.5 87.3 81.7 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------