***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 30.7 32.2 32.5 4.1 91.7 89.7 27.6 28.7 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 29.9 30.9 32.2 3.2 86.7 84.8 27.2 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 30.2 31.4 32.6 3.7 87.5 85.7 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 23.7 26.2 29.6 4.3 93.7 91.8 19.9 21.3 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 31.2 32.8 30.7 3.9 89.3 87.4 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 29.3 29.7 26.4 2.3 79.0 77.4 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 29.9 31.1 31.9 3.4 88.9 87.1 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 18.9 20.1 28.1 3.6 87.6 85.6 15.4 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 30.6 32.3 31.5 3.9 90.2 88.1 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 30.4 32.0 29.3 3.9 89.5 87.5 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 30.6 31.6 30.6 3.3 83.7 81.9 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 29.7 30.5 29.1 3.1 82.6 80.8 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 30.6 30.6 28.9 2.0 72.8 71.6 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 29.8 31.5 31.3 4.3 92.4 90.4 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 31.4 32.8 32.3 3.5 89.7 87.7 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 31.4 31.7 29.3 2.4 76.9 75.5 27.7 29.2 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 29.3 30.8 32.2 3.8 91.4 89.4 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 29.6 31.4 28.4 4.0 90.8 88.8 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 29.6 30.6 32.3 3.4 86.8 84.9 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 25.4 27.0 26.0 3.7 89.3 87.3 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 30.7 32.6 32.6 4.2 91.8 89.8 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 29.9 31.6 32.3 4.0 92.9 90.5 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 29.8 30.9 32.5 3.7 88.0 86.0 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 29.7 31.5 31.2 4.2 91.6 89.7 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 30.5 32.2 31.3 4.1 91.6 89.6 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 30.2 30.7 28.1 2.6 78.5 77.0 26.9 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 30.0 31.7 31.8 4.1 92.5 90.6 26.9 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 31.6 33.1 30.5 3.7 89.8 87.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 24.8 26.7 27.6 4.0 91.2 89.2 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 29.8 30.7 32.1 3.2 86.2 84.4 27.0 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------