***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.3 30.5 1.3 68.3 63.7 27.2 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.4 28.9 30.5 1.1 63.9 60.9 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.8 30.6 1.1 64.1 60.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 21.5 22.3 27.5 1.1 65.7 60.5 19.7 21.0 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.0 29.2 28.2 0.8 60.6 57.4 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.9 24.6 -0.2 47.3 46.7 25.7 27.1 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 29.0 28.9 30.4 1.2 66.8 63.2 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.8 26.0 0.6 57.9 55.1 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.9 28.8 0.9 62.3 58.9 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.7 27.0 0.9 62.2 58.5 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.6 28.4 28.0 0.3 53.8 52.3 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.3 27.1 0.1 51.2 50.3 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 28.9 27.7 26.6 -0.5 42.4 43.6 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.8 29.0 28.9 1.6 71.1 65.6 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.7 29.6 0.6 58.9 55.5 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.7 27.1 -0.2 47.0 47.1 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 28.7 28.8 30.6 1.6 70.9 66.0 26.3 27.4 28.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.4 28.0 26.3 1.2 65.8 61.1 25.8 26.9 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.4 30.6 1.1 63.6 60.7 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.5 23.8 0.8 62.0 57.9 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.2 29.9 1.2 65.8 61.6 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.5 30.6 1.7 72.1 66.8 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.2 28.7 30.6 1.1 64.3 61.0 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 28.4 28.5 28.7 1.4 68.2 63.2 26.3 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.4 28.9 1.2 67.5 62.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.5 26.3 -0.4 44.4 45.1 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 28.8 28.9 29.7 1.4 69.8 64.6 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.8 28.1 0.6 59.4 55.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.4 25.3 1.1 65.6 60.9 21.0 22.3 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.1 28.6 30.4 1.0 63.2 60.4 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------