***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.9 31.3 1.7 70.9 64.6 27.2 28.4 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.5 30.8 1.2 64.7 60.5 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 28.8 29.7 31.4 1.5 68.1 62.4 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 22.8 23.4 29.4 2.0 75.2 67.5 20.3 21.5 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 29.2 30.4 29.4 1.5 69.9 63.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.4 26.0 0.8 62.9 57.6 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.9 29.7 30.9 1.5 68.3 63.3 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.8 27.6 1.4 67.9 60.9 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 28.7 29.8 29.4 1.5 69.2 62.9 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 28.4 29.4 28.1 1.6 70.0 62.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.4 28.9 1.1 64.6 59.1 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.5 28.9 1.0 63.1 57.9 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.4 27.5 0.7 59.0 55.2 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.4 29.5 29.0 1.7 71.3 64.4 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 29.8 30.9 30.4 1.6 70.8 64.6 28.4 29.5 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.4 28.4 0.9 62.7 57.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 29.2 29.4 30.9 1.6 69.9 64.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 28.3 28.8 27.5 1.8 73.2 65.0 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 28.3 28.9 31.1 1.2 64.5 60.2 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.3 24.5 25.0 1.7 73.5 64.4 21.8 22.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 28.8 30.0 30.6 1.8 71.9 64.9 27.2 28.4 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 29.5 29.6 30.9 1.6 69.1 64.2 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.5 29.1 31.2 1.3 66.0 61.2 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.1 29.4 29.2 1.8 72.4 65.0 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 29.9 30.5 29.6 2.0 75.0 67.3 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.0 28.3 0.6 59.2 54.9 27.5 28.5 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 29.4 29.9 30.4 1.9 73.9 66.8 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 29.9 31.0 29.6 1.6 70.9 64.4 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 23.7 24.2 26.4 1.7 73.2 64.5 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.6 29.3 30.9 1.2 65.1 60.6 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------