***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 29.6 30.2 31.5 2.0 84.1 77.7 28.0 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 29.3 29.7 31.2 1.5 77.5 71.7 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 29.4 29.9 31.5 1.7 79.2 73.7 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 22.8 23.7 28.9 2.0 86.1 79.6 20.9 21.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.7 29.3 1.6 79.7 74.3 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 27.9 28.3 25.6 0.6 64.1 60.9 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.8 31.1 1.7 81.5 75.3 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.6 18.0 27.2 1.3 76.0 70.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 29.5 30.1 29.7 1.7 80.1 74.7 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.8 28.0 1.6 80.0 74.4 27.6 28.3 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.7 29.0 1.1 70.8 66.5 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 28.0 28.6 28.4 0.9 67.8 63.9 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.3 27.6 0.3 56.8 54.9 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 29.1 29.9 29.6 2.0 86.6 79.6 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 30.5 31.0 30.6 1.5 78.4 72.3 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 29.9 30.3 28.2 0.7 63.4 60.3 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.6 31.3 2.0 85.6 78.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 28.4 29.2 27.4 1.9 84.6 78.2 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 28.8 29.2 31.3 1.5 76.9 71.4 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 24.1 24.7 24.8 1.6 82.0 75.8 22.5 23.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.4 30.9 2.0 84.2 77.9 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.3 30.1 31.3 2.1 85.7 78.4 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.0 29.5 31.4 1.7 78.0 72.6 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 28.9 29.6 29.6 2.0 85.6 79.1 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 29.8 30.7 29.9 2.0 86.4 79.5 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.1 27.7 0.5 60.5 58.0 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 29.2 30.1 30.6 2.1 87.2 80.2 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 30.5 31.1 29.3 1.5 79.0 73.1 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 23.8 24.6 26.3 1.8 85.2 78.5 22.0 22.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 29.1 29.5 31.2 1.5 76.7 71.3 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------