***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 7.7 20.1 13.0 103.3 67.0 50.1 8.1 13.2 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.5 20.1 10.5 107.7 67.8 50.9 8.5 13.3 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.1 16.4 12.1 98.5 65.3 48.5 5.9 10.5 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.9 17.6 14.2 126.6 72.5 56.3 4.4 8.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.1 14.1 115.3 69.9 51.4 4.1 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.1 14.1 14.6 115.0 69.4 58.1 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.9 18.4 10.9 116.0 70.0 52.6 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.0 25.5 15.4 101.2 65.0 53.4 8.8 16.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.9 14.7 16.0 120.5 71.0 54.8 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.9 21.7 16.8 106.2 66.6 53.2 9.3 14.7 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.6 15.1 12.5 108.0 68.2 51.0 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.4 19.1 13.0 115.9 69.8 57.2 7.0 11.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.6 11.7 111.1 69.1 53.8 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.2 23.6 14.2 91.7 62.3 49.5 9.4 16.6 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.6 21.0 11.9 145.4 76.7 52.5 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.0 13.0 118.8 70.9 55.7 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.1 21.1 10.2 114.7 69.5 53.2 5.5 11.0 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 19.8 17.0 98.5 63.1 51.7 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.4 15.7 10.9 101.9 66.0 49.5 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 15.5 85.5 57.6 47.9 7.0 12.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.3 20.2 15.8 118.0 70.6 52.9 6.0 10.8 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.8 22.0 10.8 121.0 71.2 50.9 6.8 11.9 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.8 20.0 11.7 96.3 63.8 48.1 8.1 13.7 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.6 22.8 14.4 97.6 63.9 50.3 8.3 15.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.3 17.1 15.4 112.8 69.9 52.0 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.5 7.1 84.2 60.8 47.6 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.3 24.6 14.1 106.7 68.2 51.5 9.4 15.6 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.7 15.7 14.0 133.1 73.8 55.5 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 24.3 15.8 93.4 61.1 50.6 9.3 17.3 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.4 21.0 11.0 106.2 67.5 49.9 8.7 13.8 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------