***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.9 12.6 109.8 68.3 51.8 3.1 7.4 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.6 9.0 91.6 62.4 45.3 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.4 14.2 12.2 104.1 65.8 50.4 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 17.7 16.0 133.2 73.9 55.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.6 15.6 14.8 128.7 72.6 53.0 3.0 6.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.3 17.5 128.3 72.3 57.5 4.0 7.4 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.1 8.6 88.0 60.4 42.9 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.5 27.3 17.2 136.0 74.1 55.6 8.2 14.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.9 18.7 15.3 118.2 70.2 50.7 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.9 22.8 18.3 133.4 73.7 54.2 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.1 14.8 15.7 135.6 74.0 55.5 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.3 17.8 13.8 132.5 73.3 53.8 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.1 12.8 14.9 136.3 74.5 56.3 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 16.1 14.6 104.1 65.9 46.9 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 12.0 14.6 142.2 75.9 55.7 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.1 12.3 14.3 129.2 72.7 55.1 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.8 8.2 84.5 59.5 42.9 1.6 3.4 6.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 18.4 17.8 115.6 69.0 52.4 7.6 11.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.0 16.3 9.7 97.1 64.2 46.5 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 19.7 18.7 121.3 70.2 55.2 6.3 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.4 13.0 105.2 66.7 49.4 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.8 8.9 88.2 61.0 44.4 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.4 10.8 100.8 65.3 45.7 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.8 17.1 15.0 108.1 66.8 49.4 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.6 15.1 114.6 69.0 53.3 3.7 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.0 11.9 125.1 71.6 56.0 2.6 5.1 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.4 14.0 108.8 67.6 52.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.3 16.2 15.5 140.1 75.3 55.9 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.4 25.3 18.6 113.2 67.7 52.8 10.1 16.4 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.1 11.5 9.8 95.4 63.7 47.1 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------