***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.9 19.3 10.4 112.7 69.8 51.6 5.6 10.4 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 16.2 10.5 120.8 71.5 52.9 4.6 8.4 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.3 17.7 12.0 124.8 72.4 53.2 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.6 26.3 12.2 127.4 73.1 48.7 5.5 11.6 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.3 19.5 11.1 121.5 71.7 49.6 5.2 9.8 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.8 19.5 11.6 110.1 68.6 49.8 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.1 13.0 10.8 121.8 71.7 51.5 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.1 32.4 13.8 132.1 73.6 51.8 8.2 15.4 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.3 15.2 12.7 126.9 72.8 52.2 4.0 7.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 23.4 15.2 135.1 74.5 52.9 5.0 10.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.9 15.6 9.0 115.5 70.0 47.1 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.9 19.9 8.7 106.8 67.3 44.2 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.6 7.9 95.5 65.3 44.7 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.9 24.3 15.5 121.2 71.6 52.6 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 15.0 10.5 148.0 77.1 50.7 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.8 11.4 8.2 102.6 67.0 44.5 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.0 14.8 10.5 113.3 69.6 51.9 4.7 8.3 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 24.1 18.3 136.4 74.6 54.5 6.6 11.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.2 17.7 11.0 127.2 72.9 53.6 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 20.5 18.1 133.3 73.7 54.6 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.9 11.4 118.4 71.0 51.8 4.7 8.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 16.6 10.5 104.6 67.6 49.3 5.3 9.8 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 17.6 11.9 133.9 74.4 53.4 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.8 18.3 15.7 128.9 73.2 53.6 5.6 9.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.4 19.2 11.7 114.5 70.3 52.1 4.7 9.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.7 7.6 118.1 70.9 48.3 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.4 23.3 11.0 106.9 68.4 50.9 5.3 11.5 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.5 15.9 11.6 133.8 74.4 48.7 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.1 26.2 18.5 129.3 72.7 54.3 10.1 15.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.6 17.6 11.1 125.6 72.6 53.2 4.5 8.6 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------