***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.0 13.9 9.2 104.0 67.1 40.8 2.9 6.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 8.4 8.3 97.8 65.5 41.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.4 9.9 103.0 67.3 41.2 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 23.1 15.9 175.7 81.5 48.7 4.1 8.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.1 19.7 14.3 162.7 79.5 44.5 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.1 17.5 15.3 151.1 77.7 52.6 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.6 11.0 8.3 99.5 65.9 39.8 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 20.1 15.0 143.3 76.2 48.7 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.5 13.9 13.3 133.7 74.3 42.7 2.3 5.3 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.2 20.6 15.3 131.8 73.8 45.0 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.4 18.1 13.3 169.2 80.4 44.5 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.7 16.4 12.2 159.0 79.0 46.8 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.4 17.1 14.0 172.9 81.2 49.9 1.8 4.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.4 18.0 13.1 94.9 64.8 42.1 5.3 10.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.7 14.5 11.9 173.0 81.1 52.9 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.7 15.1 14.8 186.8 83.0 46.8 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.3 12.2 7.9 92.2 63.5 38.9 3.8 7.6 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.8 14.6 17.0 122.3 71.6 47.1 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 12.1 9.0 99.7 66.2 41.8 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 14.3 18.2 134.4 74.2 51.7 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.6 12.6 11.4 121.4 71.7 40.9 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.4 14.3 9.6 100.8 66.3 41.1 5.0 8.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.8 9.7 99.2 66.1 41.5 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.0 16.8 13.8 109.9 68.9 43.7 3.8 8.4 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.1 18.7 12.6 134.3 74.4 45.3 3.0 6.8 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.7 18.0 10.2 171.4 81.1 56.4 2.1 5.0 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.1 13.0 10.5 112.6 69.2 41.9 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.9 21.8 15.4 185.8 82.9 51.1 2.3 5.6 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 19.3 17.5 123.5 71.7 48.4 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.9 8.8 101.9 66.8 42.0 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------