***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.3 19.6 1.0 70.7 67.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 16.2 16.9 20.6 1.9 81.5 76.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 17.9 18.0 19.6 1.0 70.7 67.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.8 17.2 0.5 61.9 58.3 11.1 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.9 14.3 16.8 0.5 62.6 58.9 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 14.5 0.1 53.0 51.4 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.3 16.7 20.6 1.8 80.9 76.5 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.5 14.9 0.6 66.1 61.9 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.5 17.1 0.6 63.4 60.3 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.5 15.5 0.6 64.1 60.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.3 16.3 0.6 64.5 60.3 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.3 16.0 0.7 66.7 62.0 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.3 15.0 0.2 56.6 54.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.6 17.5 1.1 72.8 68.7 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.7 17.0 18.0 0.6 63.3 59.4 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.5 15.8 0.3 57.7 54.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.6 17.0 19.9 1.7 78.8 74.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.4 14.1 15.1 0.8 69.0 65.3 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 15.9 16.4 20.3 1.7 80.4 75.7 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.9 13.1 0.7 66.4 62.5 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.4 18.5 0.7 65.8 62.6 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.8 16.2 19.9 1.7 79.9 75.8 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 15.5 15.9 19.7 1.5 79.2 74.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 16.1 16.2 17.2 0.9 70.1 66.3 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.8 17.9 0.8 66.8 63.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.9 15.2 0.2 55.7 53.7 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.1 18.8 1.0 70.9 67.3 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.4 17.4 0.4 59.5 56.3 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.2 14.5 1.0 72.9 68.9 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 16.3 16.7 20.5 1.7 79.2 74.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------