***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 17.1 17.6 20.8 1.4 76.8 68.7 15.0 16.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.6 21.0 1.4 77.9 69.0 14.8 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 19.3 19.5 20.6 1.2 73.0 66.2 16.9 18.0 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.1 18.4 0.8 67.1 62.5 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.1 17.9 0.8 67.5 62.7 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.8 13.7 16.0 0.6 66.2 61.6 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.3 18.0 21.1 1.5 79.5 69.7 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.3 15.9 1.0 72.5 65.9 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.5 18.2 1.0 70.2 64.5 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.1 16.5 0.9 69.2 63.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.9 15.9 17.4 0.9 69.4 64.0 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 17.3 1.2 76.3 68.5 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 15.2 15.4 16.6 1.0 74.6 67.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.1 18.2 1.0 71.2 64.5 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.7 19.4 1.0 71.6 65.4 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.7 16.7 17.2 0.8 69.7 64.1 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.8 18.1 20.2 1.2 74.3 65.8 15.8 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.4 14.6 15.9 0.9 70.6 64.2 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.3 20.8 1.4 77.1 68.7 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.3 13.9 0.8 68.0 62.0 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.4 19.6 1.1 71.8 65.8 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.7 20.1 1.1 73.5 65.7 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.7 20.4 1.4 77.1 68.7 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.8 16.9 18.1 1.0 71.2 64.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.8 19.0 1.1 74.0 67.1 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.3 16.8 1.1 75.7 67.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.6 19.9 1.4 77.9 69.2 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.0 18.8 0.8 67.8 62.9 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.5 15.2 0.9 70.7 63.9 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 17.5 18.0 21.2 1.5 77.7 69.1 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------