***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.3 19.4 0.6 69.5 65.4 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.5 19.9 1.0 77.6 73.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.1 18.0 19.3 0.5 65.9 63.0 16.8 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.0 16.9 0.1 53.5 53.0 12.3 12.9 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.2 16.7 0.1 54.7 53.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.9 14.5 0.0 50.0 49.7 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.4 16.7 19.9 1.0 77.9 73.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.8 14.7 0.3 62.9 59.5 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.6 17.1 0.3 59.5 57.3 14.7 15.2 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.4 15.4 0.3 59.9 57.6 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.2 16.2 0.2 57.6 55.8 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.4 15.8 0.4 65.0 60.9 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 15.2 0.2 57.5 55.4 13.7 14.2 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.4 17.3 0.5 66.9 64.0 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.8 18.2 0.3 60.2 58.7 15.9 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 15.9 0.1 53.4 52.5 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.1 19.2 0.9 74.7 70.4 15.6 16.2 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.0 14.9 0.4 64.2 61.2 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.4 19.7 1.0 76.1 71.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.8 12.8 0.3 60.6 57.9 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 18.5 0.4 62.9 60.2 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.8 16.0 19.3 0.9 75.0 70.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.7 19.3 0.9 74.5 70.4 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.1 16.1 17.1 0.5 65.2 62.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.5 17.8 0.4 62.4 59.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.2 15.1 0.1 54.1 52.5 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 15.8 15.9 18.6 0.6 69.3 65.1 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.3 17.4 0.1 53.7 53.4 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.1 14.3 0.5 68.0 64.5 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.5 16.7 20.0 0.9 75.5 71.3 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------