***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.0 27.5 -1.0 37.0 38.1 27.8 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.6 27.9 28.4 -0.6 43.1 43.5 27.3 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 26.9 27.4 27.5 -1.2 35.7 36.9 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 19.1 19.0 24.3 -2.2 23.2 26.0 20.0 21.4 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 26.7 26.8 25.0 -2.2 25.0 27.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 24.8 24.2 21.4 -3.1 14.9 18.3 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 28.5 27.7 28.2 -0.6 42.0 42.5 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 14.6 14.8 22.8 -2.3 24.5 27.4 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 26.3 26.7 26.2 -1.7 29.4 31.7 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 25.9 26.2 24.1 -2.0 27.6 29.9 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 26.0 26.0 24.5 -2.4 23.4 26.0 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 25.4 25.4 23.9 -2.3 24.1 27.1 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 26.3 26.1 23.6 -2.6 20.4 23.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.1 26.1 -1.0 37.6 38.8 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 27.5 27.4 26.8 -1.9 24.4 27.5 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 26.8 26.6 24.1 -2.6 20.3 23.3 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 27.9 27.2 27.9 -0.6 42.9 43.4 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 25.2 25.7 23.3 -1.8 29.3 31.4 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.5 28.3 -0.5 43.8 44.1 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 20.4 20.8 20.8 -2.3 24.6 27.6 21.5 23.0 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 26.6 27.1 27.1 -1.6 31.0 33.0 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.0 28.1 -0.2 47.6 47.6 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.3 27.6 28.0 -0.5 44.2 44.5 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 26.0 26.5 25.7 -1.4 33.4 35.0 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 26.8 27.1 25.9 -1.5 30.9 32.7 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 26.1 25.9 23.2 -2.5 21.5 25.0 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.1 26.7 -1.1 35.3 36.7 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 27.2 26.9 25.1 -2.4 20.2 23.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 20.4 20.9 22.4 -1.8 29.1 31.4 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.6 28.3 -0.7 41.7 42.2 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------