***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 29.8 30.9 32.1 3.1 86.4 81.7 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 29.6 31.0 33.0 3.7 89.0 83.8 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 29.6 30.6 32.1 3.1 85.4 80.8 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.5 23.0 29.5 2.0 77.0 72.8 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 29.9 30.4 29.5 2.1 77.7 73.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 28.4 28.4 26.2 1.1 67.2 63.7 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 29.5 30.9 32.7 3.6 88.4 83.3 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 17.7 18.4 27.9 2.2 79.1 74.4 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.2 30.0 2.4 80.6 76.3 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 29.2 29.8 28.5 2.3 79.5 75.2 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 29.5 30.0 28.9 2.0 77.6 73.4 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 28.6 29.3 29.0 2.3 79.9 74.8 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 29.6 30.0 27.9 1.7 73.8 69.2 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 29.1 30.0 30.1 3.1 85.1 80.3 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 30.5 31.2 30.2 2.1 79.7 74.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 30.3 30.6 28.4 1.6 72.8 68.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 29.2 30.4 32.4 3.6 87.5 82.4 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 28.3 29.0 28.0 2.6 81.1 76.7 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 29.1 30.6 32.9 3.7 89.2 84.0 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 24.1 24.6 25.6 2.1 77.6 73.4 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 29.6 30.4 31.1 2.7 82.6 78.1 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 29.6 31.1 32.3 3.7 88.7 83.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 29.3 30.7 32.4 3.7 89.1 83.9 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 28.8 29.6 30.0 2.9 83.7 79.2 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 29.8 30.7 30.0 2.7 83.4 78.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.9 28.3 1.8 75.9 70.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 29.2 30.3 31.0 3.0 86.2 81.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.8 29.6 1.7 74.3 70.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 23.8 24.6 27.0 2.5 80.7 76.4 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 29.4 30.8 32.9 3.6 88.4 83.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------