***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 30.4 31.7 32.5 3.1 87.4 79.2 27.2 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 30.3 31.9 33.2 3.5 89.2 80.6 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 30.4 31.7 32.6 3.0 86.6 78.6 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 23.4 24.1 30.2 2.2 80.6 73.7 20.5 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 30.9 31.7 30.2 2.4 81.4 74.4 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 29.1 29.7 27.3 1.9 78.7 70.7 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 30.3 31.8 33.0 3.4 89.2 80.4 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 18.3 19.3 28.6 2.6 83.8 75.9 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 30.4 31.4 30.6 2.7 83.4 76.0 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 29.9 30.8 29.1 2.6 83.0 75.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 30.3 31.2 29.7 2.4 82.2 74.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 29.5 30.6 29.8 2.7 85.0 76.7 26.5 27.7 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.4 28.9 2.3 81.5 73.5 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 29.9 31.1 30.5 3.0 86.1 78.3 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 31.4 32.2 30.8 2.3 83.6 75.4 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 31.3 32.0 29.3 2.1 79.3 72.2 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.8 31.1 32.5 3.2 87.0 78.5 26.9 28.1 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 28.9 29.9 28.6 2.7 83.9 76.2 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 29.8 31.3 33.2 3.5 89.4 80.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 24.5 25.4 26.3 2.4 81.7 74.2 21.8 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 30.4 31.4 31.6 2.8 84.5 76.9 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 30.2 31.6 32.5 3.3 87.5 79.3 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 30.0 31.6 32.8 3.5 89.6 81.1 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 29.7 30.8 30.4 2.9 85.6 77.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 30.7 31.7 30.5 2.7 85.2 77.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 30.0 30.9 29.3 2.4 83.3 74.5 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 30.2 31.5 31.5 3.0 87.5 79.1 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.9 30.3 2.0 79.3 72.3 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 24.3 25.4 27.5 2.7 83.5 75.8 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 30.2 31.8 33.2 3.4 89.1 80.6 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------