***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.1 31.2 1.8 82.2 77.3 28.0 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 29.6 30.2 31.9 2.2 84.7 80.1 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 29.5 29.9 31.2 1.7 79.5 75.4 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 22.7 22.6 28.6 0.9 67.8 64.8 20.9 21.8 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 30.1 30.1 28.8 1.0 69.3 66.3 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.1 25.7 0.3 57.8 55.7 27.0 27.8 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 29.5 30.1 31.7 2.2 84.9 80.2 27.6 28.4 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.8 27.0 1.1 71.8 67.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 29.6 29.8 29.4 1.3 74.3 70.5 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.4 27.8 1.2 72.4 68.7 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 29.6 29.6 28.2 0.9 69.2 65.9 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 28.7 29.0 28.2 1.2 73.4 68.6 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.8 27.4 0.7 66.0 62.3 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 29.1 29.5 29.3 1.7 80.0 75.8 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 30.6 30.7 29.7 1.0 72.1 68.0 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.0 30.4 27.9 0.6 63.6 60.9 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 29.0 29.5 31.3 2.0 83.0 78.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 28.4 28.6 27.1 1.3 74.8 70.6 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 29.2 29.7 31.9 2.2 84.8 80.2 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 24.0 24.0 24.8 1.0 69.3 65.3 22.5 23.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 29.6 29.9 30.4 1.4 75.8 72.0 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 29.5 30.0 31.3 2.2 84.7 80.1 27.6 28.4 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 29.3 29.9 31.4 2.2 85.1 80.4 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 28.9 29.2 29.1 1.6 78.2 73.9 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 29.8 30.1 29.3 1.4 77.2 72.7 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 29.4 29.4 27.6 0.8 68.6 63.8 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 29.2 29.7 30.2 1.8 82.1 76.8 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.4 29.0 0.7 64.4 61.8 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 23.7 23.9 26.1 1.3 74.6 70.2 22.1 22.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 29.4 29.9 31.9 2.1 84.2 79.6 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------