***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 5.6 7.1 5.0 41.7 36.9 30.1 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 3.5 4.4 4.1 31.9 27.7 21.5 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 3.2 4.0 4.5 36.9 30.3 24.3 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.9 9.3 72.9 51.9 42.5 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.3 4.7 6.5 48.7 38.9 31.3 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.3 11.5 70.5 53.4 46.5 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 2.9 3.2 3.8 29.5 26.8 20.8 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.0 10.4 8.0 50.9 40.9 33.1 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.4 3.5 6.3 45.7 37.7 29.5 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 6.5 8.7 7.8 46.8 38.2 30.5 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.1 6.3 6.2 53.3 44.1 35.1 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.9 7.6 6.2 49.8 42.4 33.8 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.5 6.5 45.1 38.0 32.6 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 4.3 4.2 4.9 29.1 24.5 20.0 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.5 9.8 87.3 58.5 46.9 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 4.8 7.5 58.2 45.5 38.8 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 2.2 2.0 3.5 26.7 23.5 19.0 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 4.9 6.4 7.5 40.8 34.2 27.9 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 2.7 3.3 4.0 31.5 28.1 21.7 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.3 8.3 8.6 46.2 34.9 29.0 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 3.5 5.0 5.5 42.9 36.5 28.7 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 2.7 2.6 3.3 25.2 23.4 19.3 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 3.2 3.8 4.0 30.1 28.2 21.6 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 4.3 5.4 5.6 35.6 31.9 25.3 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.7 6.0 7.8 55.4 41.6 34.2 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.6 7.1 53.9 41.6 36.3 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 6.1 8.4 6.6 46.7 38.5 31.6 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.6 9.4 75.1 53.6 44.4 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 5.7 7.9 7.6 41.8 33.4 27.7 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 4.7 6.3 4.2 34.5 30.9 22.7 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------