***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 2.2 6.0 3.8 47.7 45.2 21.7 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 2.4 3.5 3.1 34.7 35.3 22.5 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 3.1 5.3 3.1 35.8 35.6 20.3 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.8 6.6 4.0 40.8 40.5 25.9 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 3.1 5.9 3.8 37.5 39.6 22.8 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.5 5.4 5.1 39.5 39.0 26.4 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 2.3 4.3 3.4 37.9 38.6 23.2 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 7.5 12.9 4.3 38.7 40.6 23.8 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 3.2 6.8 3.8 37.2 39.7 20.8 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 4.7 8.4 4.4 34.7 38.0 21.5 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 3.3 5.8 2.6 31.7 36.8 21.3 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 3.9 6.5 2.7 36.0 38.6 22.6 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 3.5 5.4 3.4 37.0 40.6 25.6 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 5.5 7.6 4.4 34.8 34.3 21.3 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.9 3.8 3.6 41.4 41.3 26.0 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 4.1 6.4 3.1 36.7 40.5 25.3 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.6 2.6 3.1 33.3 35.6 20.5 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 6.1 8.6 4.7 31.7 33.1 20.2 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.1 4.4 2.9 32.8 34.3 21.4 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 6.2 10.6 6.0 43.6 41.2 25.0 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 2.9 6.8 3.3 40.6 40.2 19.2 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.9 5.2 3.3 36.2 36.0 21.8 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 3.1 4.5 2.8 30.1 32.7 19.3 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 4.2 6.1 4.1 33.0 32.4 19.9 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 2.7 7.0 5.1 47.3 44.1 23.6 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.1 4.0 62.3 51.3 32.8 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 3.1 7.7 5.0 49.2 45.4 22.4 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 2.3 4.2 3.2 36.5 38.4 22.7 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 10.0 13.7 5.0 35.3 35.4 22.2 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 2.1 3.7 3.0 34.7 36.5 21.8 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------