***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 3.9 11.7 5.8 70.4 56.8 29.2 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 3.2 9.6 5.6 70.0 54.2 29.6 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 3.2 8.3 5.3 69.1 55.3 28.9 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.3 12.4 6.7 67.2 57.1 30.5 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 4.2 11.3 6.0 65.2 55.3 27.7 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.4 8.9 60.5 52.5 33.2 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 2.9 7.4 5.5 63.8 52.8 29.2 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 5.2 19.6 9.1 94.5 63.2 34.0 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 3.2 7.9 5.3 59.5 52.3 26.2 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.5 11.0 7.8 75.8 57.6 30.4 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 2.3 7.7 5.3 69.6 56.3 28.0 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.0 13.6 6.8 92.6 63.3 33.1 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 1.7 5.8 6.6 70.0 56.9 30.7 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.3 10.0 6.7 64.1 51.9 31.5 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.4 6.2 5.3 57.1 54.2 32.2 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 5.8 5.5 63.9 54.9 30.6 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 3.8 10.0 5.6 77.2 57.3 31.2 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.5 11.6 9.2 75.1 57.8 33.9 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 3.6 9.9 5.4 73.9 55.7 28.9 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.7 11.8 11.2 88.7 61.5 38.1 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 3.1 8.0 4.8 65.5 54.1 25.1 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.7 10.6 5.7 76.0 56.2 29.2 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 3.0 8.9 5.3 73.2 55.7 28.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.0 9.7 7.1 69.9 55.0 32.3 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 3.9 9.9 6.5 62.9 54.5 28.2 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.6 4.7 74.9 55.6 34.2 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 3.8 12.3 6.5 63.1 54.4 28.0 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.4 8.7 5.8 62.0 55.7 29.7 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 6.6 15.2 9.6 77.5 58.0 34.8 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 3.4 9.6 5.6 67.3 54.1 29.2 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------