***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 2.9 10.8 3.7 71.9 56.0 28.4 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.4 3.4 63.9 53.8 36.2 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 3.0 8.7 3.0 61.7 52.0 28.8 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.0 12.2 5.2 68.0 55.9 29.7 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.0 8.7 5.5 75.3 58.8 27.1 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.0 13.7 10.0 100.2 66.7 42.4 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.6 3.8 68.1 56.4 37.4 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 3.9 15.5 7.5 91.5 64.0 35.2 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 2.0 8.6 5.1 70.9 58.1 26.7 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 4.6 17.2 7.1 84.1 62.5 32.6 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 2.4 11.3 5.7 96.6 65.0 30.0 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 2.6 12.5 5.6 98.1 65.2 34.1 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.0 10.5 6.7 104.4 67.0 37.7 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.7 15.8 6.0 80.3 60.9 36.8 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.5 4.8 3.7 60.3 52.3 28.1 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.3 10.3 6.4 106.8 67.7 35.2 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.1 3.4 59.3 51.9 35.4 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.9 15.4 8.2 85.2 63.0 37.1 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 10.2 3.2 64.1 53.6 34.2 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.9 9.7 96.9 65.7 40.5 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 2.6 7.7 3.4 58.4 51.4 23.8 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.3 3.7 64.9 54.0 35.5 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.3 9.3 3.3 67.7 55.5 31.1 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.3 12.2 5.6 74.8 58.6 34.0 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.8 9.3 4.7 62.7 54.0 29.6 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.0 12.3 4.7 101.3 65.2 39.2 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 3.4 10.3 5.0 72.6 57.2 31.0 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.7 9.8 4.9 70.7 56.6 29.1 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 5.2 19.2 8.5 91.0 64.4 39.0 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 4.0 11.0 3.4 66.8 55.0 34.3 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------