***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 27.3 38.3 18.3 54.9 39.4 30.7 32.7 49.5 70.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 24.5 26.3 16.2 46.1 26.0 23.1 31.3 44.0 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 26.8 31.3 15.9 47.7 30.4 26.0 33.3 47.0 63.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 32.7 42.4 25.1 62.8 41.7 36.0 33.6 51.2 71.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 27.0 33.7 21.8 54.6 36.2 30.7 31.2 45.0 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 28.7 37.9 35.5 65.9 42.3 36.7 29.9 44.6 62.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 21.9 24.1 16.5 45.7 26.4 22.6 29.0 42.0 57.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 51.6 66.3 28.8 65.0 42.5 35.8 55.9 74.8 95.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 23.4 28.5 20.5 51.0 33.6 28.9 28.1 42.2 58.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 36.4 45.4 27.1 56.5 36.6 31.5 41.7 59.8 81.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 21.7 32.6 19.9 59.3 41.8 33.9 26.1 39.4 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 28.8 42.5 21.3 64.4 44.6 36.9 31.4 48.0 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 16.3 22.5 23.2 58.7 41.0 34.7 17.6 28.7 42.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 40.3 42.7 22.0 46.4 27.2 25.6 48.5 66.6 87.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 36.7 22.6 22.4 63.4 43.1 37.4 15.7 27.9 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 19.1 27.4 22.5 62.5 43.2 36.4 21.2 32.2 45.5 30 Nis 06700G01 80 20 0 100 27.5 27.9 15.5 44.2 23.1 21.4 34.1 45.1 57.3 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 39.8 44.2 29.6 53.7 32.1 29.8 45.0 59.8 76.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 28.8 31.4 15.6 45.7 27.0 23.9 36.1 50.7 67.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 37.4 44.9 35.5 64.3 38.2 34.7 40.8 54.4 69.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 24.7 33.0 17.0 49.9 35.9 29.1 30.8 44.9 61.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 30.7 33.4 16.0 45.1 25.7 23.0 38.6 51.7 66.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 29.8 32.7 15.4 44.3 27.8 24.6 36.0 47.7 60.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 32.4 35.8 22.5 48.8 29.7 27.3 39.0 55.8 75.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 28.7 36.4 24.1 56.5 36.9 30.3 33.5 47.5 64.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 19.8 27.8 20.6 67.2 43.9 38.4 21.0 31.9 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 33.4 44.6 23.1 55.7 37.7 29.7 40.4 56.3 74.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 24.6 31.8 23.3 62.1 42.3 36.1 24.4 38.3 55.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 54.5 60.8 30.8 56.7 33.2 30.9 60.4 78.6 98.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 29.2 33.2 16.2 47.2 28.9 24.5 36.2 49.5 65.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------