***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.5 16.8 19.0 1.4 78.5 74.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.6 18.8 1.2 74.0 70.7 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.2 18.4 19.1 1.1 72.5 69.7 16.4 17.3 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.0 14.9 16.7 1.6 83.9 79.1 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.9 17.3 1.5 80.2 75.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 14.3 15.2 14.7 1.7 87.1 82.2 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.8 18.6 1.2 75.0 71.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 9.5 10.1 14.5 1.4 81.1 77.5 7.5 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.9 17.5 1.4 81.0 76.2 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.7 15.5 1.4 81.7 77.4 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.3 16.8 1.1 75.5 71.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.0 14.4 15.6 1.3 77.9 74.7 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.6 15.6 0.9 72.5 69.1 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.8 17.3 17.2 1.5 81.5 77.1 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.3 17.9 18.6 1.4 81.4 76.6 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.8 16.3 1.1 74.3 70.7 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.9 17.2 18.4 1.1 73.3 70.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 14.9 15.6 15.0 1.6 84.6 80.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.2 16.5 18.9 1.2 73.2 70.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 10.7 11.4 13.1 1.6 83.4 79.8 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 16.2 16.6 18.5 1.3 78.6 74.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.4 18.9 1.4 77.8 74.1 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.8 18.8 1.1 71.6 69.0 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.5 17.0 17.2 1.4 80.5 76.6 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.6 18.1 1.5 79.7 75.3 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.6 14.7 1.3 78.9 75.5 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.7 18.5 1.5 80.3 76.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.8 17.2 1.3 80.1 75.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 13.5 14.2 14.2 1.5 83.3 79.7 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.9 19.1 1.3 74.8 71.4 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------