***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.8 17.8 -0.7 35.1 36.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.8 17.6 -0.9 31.3 33.9 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 15.7 16.0 17.9 -0.9 31.4 33.9 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.5 15.5 -0.5 39.1 42.1 11.1 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.6 12.9 15.7 -0.7 34.1 38.1 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.3 13.7 -0.2 43.7 46.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 14.2 14.3 17.5 -1.0 30.9 33.8 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.0 13.3 -0.6 35.5 39.5 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.2 15.9 -0.6 36.6 40.1 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.1 14.2 -0.5 36.9 40.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.7 13.8 15.4 -0.7 32.9 37.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.5 11.6 14.3 -0.8 32.1 37.1 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.1 14.1 -0.7 33.8 38.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.8 15.7 -0.6 35.9 38.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.0 17.6 -0.4 41.4 43.9 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.2 14.8 -0.7 32.7 37.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.6 14.7 17.2 -1.0 30.3 33.6 14.9 15.6 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.5 13.5 -0.5 37.8 41.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.0 17.7 -0.9 31.6 34.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.4 11.5 -0.5 37.7 41.4 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.6 13.9 17.1 -0.7 35.4 38.4 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.1 17.6 -0.7 35.5 37.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 13.4 13.6 17.5 -1.1 29.5 32.4 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.5 15.6 -0.6 35.4 38.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.1 16.5 -0.7 35.2 37.9 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.0 12.9 13.4 -0.6 35.1 39.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.7 17.1 -0.7 35.6 37.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.5 16.1 -0.5 39.4 42.5 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.3 12.8 -0.5 38.1 41.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.3 17.8 -0.9 31.7 34.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------