***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.8 15.8 18.6 0.2 55.4 54.2 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.3 18.5 0.0 50.1 50.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.6 17.4 18.8 0.0 50.0 49.9 16.8 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 13.0 13.4 16.4 0.4 64.5 61.9 12.3 12.9 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.2 16.4 0.1 53.4 52.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 13.4 13.6 14.5 0.5 70.2 66.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.7 18.5 0.0 50.0 50.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.6 14.1 0.2 56.5 54.9 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.5 16.5 0.2 56.6 55.4 14.7 15.2 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.4 14.9 0.2 59.3 57.5 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 16.0 0.0 48.6 48.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 15.0 0.0 50.1 49.7 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.2 14.6 0.0 50.7 50.2 13.7 14.2 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.1 16.4 0.2 57.9 56.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 16.6 17.0 18.2 0.4 65.4 62.3 15.9 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.5 15.4 0.0 50.8 50.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.2 18.1 0.0 48.4 49.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 14.1 14.1 14.2 0.4 66.5 63.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.4 18.5 0.0 49.6 49.8 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 10.0 10.0 12.1 0.4 66.5 63.3 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.2 17.8 0.1 55.0 54.1 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.3 18.4 0.2 56.1 55.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.8 18.4 -0.1 46.6 47.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.8 16.4 0.2 58.8 57.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.4 17.3 0.2 57.2 55.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.2 14.2 0.2 56.9 55.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.4 17.9 0.2 57.6 55.9 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 14.3 14.6 16.9 0.3 63.2 60.5 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.9 13.6 0.3 64.6 61.7 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.0 15.8 18.7 0.0 50.7 50.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------