***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 29.0 29.5 29.2 0.9 62.5 61.5 27.8 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 28.5 28.5 29.0 0.2 53.2 53.1 27.3 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 28.6 28.6 29.1 0.4 54.8 54.5 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 22.9 23.0 26.6 1.4 69.2 67.7 20.0 21.4 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 29.2 29.7 27.4 0.8 60.4 59.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 28.9 29.0 25.5 1.5 70.3 68.9 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 28.4 28.5 28.7 0.4 56.3 55.8 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 17.0 17.6 25.3 0.9 61.8 61.0 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 28.6 29.3 28.4 1.0 62.4 61.5 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 28.4 29.2 26.3 1.1 63.7 62.7 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 28.7 29.0 27.8 0.6 57.5 57.0 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 27.8 28.1 26.4 0.5 56.5 56.1 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 29.0 29.1 27.2 0.3 53.8 53.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 28.1 28.6 27.9 0.9 62.2 61.2 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 29.7 30.4 29.7 1.0 64.8 63.8 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 29.6 29.8 27.2 0.5 55.8 55.5 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 27.9 27.7 28.3 0.1 51.9 51.9 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 47 53 100 28.6 28.7 25.6 1.4 67.0 65.8 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 28.0 28.1 29.1 0.3 53.7 53.5 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 24.4 24.6 23.6 1.5 69.3 68.0 21.5 23.0 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 28.8 29.5 29.2 1.0 63.1 62.1 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 28.4 28.9 29.0 0.9 62.7 61.5 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 28.2 28.1 28.8 0.1 51.0 51.1 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 27.9 28.5 27.9 1.0 62.3 61.4 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 28.8 29.3 28.0 0.9 62.2 61.3 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 28.5 29.0 26.1 0.7 58.5 58.0 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 28.3 28.9 28.5 0.9 63.5 62.4 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 48 52 100 30.6 30.7 27.8 1.2 66.4 65.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 23.9 24.0 24.9 1.5 69.2 67.8 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 28.3 28.4 29.1 0.4 56.1 55.7 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------