***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 26.3 26.5 27.8 -1.7 27.5 31.5 26.9 28.1 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 26.2 26.2 27.8 -2.0 25.4 29.8 26.8 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 25.9 25.9 27.7 -2.2 23.5 27.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 19.2 19.5 25.4 -1.3 31.5 35.2 19.7 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 26.3 26.3 25.6 -2.1 23.0 27.5 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 25.3 25.6 23.6 -1.4 29.8 34.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 26.0 26.1 27.6 -1.8 26.1 30.5 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 14.2 14.1 23.5 -2.2 21.8 26.3 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 26.1 26.2 26.3 -2.0 24.1 28.2 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 25.9 26.0 24.4 -2.0 24.3 28.3 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 26.0 25.8 25.6 -2.4 20.6 25.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 25.2 24.9 24.8 -2.5 19.4 24.4 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 26.1 25.8 24.9 -2.6 18.3 24.1 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 26.1 26.1 25.7 -2.0 24.2 28.4 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 27.5 27.8 28.1 -1.2 32.5 36.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 26.8 26.6 25.3 -2.3 20.6 25.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 25.6 25.6 27.3 -2.0 24.5 29.4 26.2 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 25.0 25.2 23.6 -1.9 25.5 29.4 25.7 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 25.7 25.8 27.9 -2.0 25.8 30.0 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 20.4 20.5 21.2 -2.0 23.5 28.2 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 26.1 26.2 27.2 -1.9 25.2 29.3 26.8 28.0 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 26.3 26.7 27.9 -1.3 32.4 36.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 26.0 25.9 27.6 -2.3 23.0 27.2 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 25.6 25.6 25.7 -2.1 23.9 28.0 26.3 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 26.1 26.3 26.2 -1.8 26.2 30.5 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 25.9 25.7 24.7 -2.3 20.6 26.3 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 25.8 26.0 27.0 -1.7 27.5 31.7 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.7 26.4 -1.4 30.7 34.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 20.1 20.3 22.6 -1.9 24.9 29.1 21.0 22.2 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 25.9 26.0 27.9 -1.9 26.0 30.2 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------