***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 26.9 27.7 29.0 -0.8 39.4 42.3 27.2 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.1 27.8 28.9 -0.8 39.1 42.2 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.7 29.1 -0.9 38.0 41.5 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.3 27.3 -0.4 44.4 46.3 20.5 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 27.3 27.9 26.9 -1.1 34.5 39.2 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 26.3 27.3 24.8 -0.4 42.6 44.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.0 28.8 -0.8 39.6 42.5 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.8 25.4 -1.0 35.6 40.0 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 26.9 27.5 27.1 -1.0 36.2 40.3 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 26.5 27.3 25.9 -0.8 38.3 41.9 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 26.7 27.1 26.7 -1.3 32.2 37.6 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 26.0 26.3 26.7 -1.4 30.6 36.6 26.5 27.7 28.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 27.1 27.4 25.5 -1.4 28.5 35.4 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.4 26.7 -0.9 38.4 41.6 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 28.3 29.7 29.0 0.0 49.4 49.4 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.8 28.3 26.4 -1.2 32.1 37.9 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 26.7 27.4 28.6 -0.8 39.4 42.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 25.8 26.7 25.3 -0.6 41.8 44.3 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.3 29.0 -0.9 38.7 42.0 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 21.5 22.3 22.7 -0.7 39.7 42.8 21.8 23.0 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 26.9 27.6 28.1 -0.9 37.3 40.9 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.2 29.0 -0.3 45.6 46.9 27.4 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.7 27.3 28.8 -1.1 36.2 40.1 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.3 27.1 26.8 -0.8 38.9 42.1 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.3 28.2 27.1 -0.8 39.2 42.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.5 26.6 -1.2 32.2 38.4 27.6 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 26.8 27.6 28.0 -0.7 40.2 42.7 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.2 29.4 27.8 -0.3 45.7 47.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.0 24.2 -0.6 41.6 44.1 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.9 27.6 28.9 -0.8 39.0 42.2 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------