***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.3 30.6 -0.1 49.1 49.1 28.0 29.4 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.9 30.4 -0.2 46.9 47.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 27.5 29.0 30.7 -0.3 46.6 47.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.2 28.7 0.2 52.6 51.4 21.6 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 28.2 29.6 28.4 -0.5 43.3 44.4 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.1 26.3 0.3 54.6 52.4 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.8 30.3 -0.1 48.3 48.8 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.7 17.9 26.8 -0.4 44.8 45.2 17.0 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 27.7 29.1 28.5 -0.5 44.0 44.8 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 27.7 29.1 27.3 -0.3 46.4 46.4 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.9 29.1 28.2 -0.7 41.4 42.9 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.2 28.2 -0.7 40.7 42.3 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.5 29.5 27.1 -0.7 40.6 42.1 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.6 28.0 -0.3 45.6 46.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 31.2 31.1 30.3 0.4 56.3 54.2 29.4 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 29.1 30.3 27.9 -0.5 42.9 44.0 29.5 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.2 30.0 -0.3 46.1 46.9 27.1 28.5 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 27.0 28.5 26.7 0.0 49.9 48.9 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.9 28.4 30.5 -0.3 46.1 46.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 23.0 24.4 24.1 0.0 49.4 48.5 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.3 29.6 -0.3 45.6 46.2 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.0 30.3 0.1 50.6 50.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 27.1 28.4 30.3 -0.5 43.5 44.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 27.1 28.6 28.3 -0.2 47.1 47.2 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.5 28.7 -0.1 48.1 48.3 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.5 28.2 -0.3 46.3 46.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.9 29.5 0.0 49.5 49.4 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 31.1 30.9 29.2 0.3 53.6 52.2 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.9 25.6 0.0 49.8 48.9 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.1 28.7 30.5 -0.2 47.6 48.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------