***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.4 29.1 -0.4 42.0 43.1 28.0 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.7 27.9 29.0 -0.7 36.4 38.7 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.8 27.9 29.1 -0.7 36.4 38.3 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.7 27.0 0.0 49.5 49.4 20.9 21.8 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 28.2 28.4 27.1 -0.7 35.8 37.6 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.0 27.8 25.1 0.0 49.9 49.6 27.0 27.8 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.5 27.9 28.9 -0.6 38.2 40.2 27.6 28.4 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.5 25.2 -0.7 36.5 38.3 16.3 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.0 27.6 -0.6 37.9 39.5 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.9 26.0 -0.5 40.0 41.3 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.6 27.8 27.1 -0.9 32.2 34.4 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.5 -1.0 30.1 32.9 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 27.9 28.0 26.2 -1.1 28.2 31.1 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.7 27.1 -0.6 38.6 40.1 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.7 29.3 0.0 51.0 50.9 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.6 28.8 26.7 -0.9 32.1 34.5 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.0 27.3 28.6 -0.7 35.0 37.6 27.2 27.9 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.3 25.3 -0.3 44.3 45.0 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.2 27.4 29.1 -0.7 36.6 38.8 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.0 22.9 -0.3 43.4 44.0 22.5 23.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.2 28.5 -0.5 39.4 40.8 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.2 29.0 -0.2 46.4 47.1 27.6 28.4 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.5 28.9 -1.0 33.1 35.4 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.5 27.2 -0.5 39.6 41.0 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.4 27.5 -0.5 41.0 42.1 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.9 28.0 26.4 -0.8 34.3 36.5 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.9 28.3 -0.4 42.6 43.5 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.0 29.6 27.8 -0.1 48.8 49.0 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.1 22.6 24.3 -0.2 44.8 45.3 22.1 22.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.4 27.8 29.1 -0.6 38.1 40.0 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------