***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 14.2 18.0 13.8 109.5 67.8 54.2 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 18.7 20.3 12.7 133.6 73.8 60.1 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.7 14.0 12.7 110.0 67.8 54.6 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.6 8.4 72.8 54.4 43.4 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.8 10.1 77.4 56.6 45.6 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.0 9.1 69.5 51.9 41.5 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 19.1 13.1 131.0 73.3 61.0 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.3 14.0 90.2 60.1 49.4 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.1 12.7 95.0 62.8 51.0 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.1 14.7 89.4 60.1 49.9 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.4 10.4 83.2 59.2 46.9 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.7 10.0 85.9 59.2 47.7 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.9 8.2 67.0 53.0 42.5 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.5 22.1 16.3 107.8 66.5 53.8 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.5 9.6 7.1 78.4 58.7 39.8 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.8 9.1 79.0 57.9 45.8 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 18.7 25.2 14.2 158.0 78.9 65.0 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.9 15.2 87.1 57.6 48.3 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.6 18.3 12.6 126.1 72.2 57.6 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 14.7 14.4 79.7 53.5 45.0 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.5 12.4 98.9 64.5 52.3 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 17.1 20.6 13.2 142.7 75.7 61.8 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.2 19.7 13.6 126.1 72.1 55.3 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.8 16.7 14.1 97.4 62.7 51.1 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.0 12.0 86.6 60.5 49.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.2 5.3 61.8 50.8 38.1 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 18.7 13.6 102.2 65.4 53.5 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.8 7.1 8.0 71.5 55.1 42.1 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.7 19.2 15.0 87.3 57.0 47.0 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 14.8 20.2 12.4 121.4 71.1 56.9 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------