***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 22.3 15.8 149.7 77.4 49.1 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 19.3 14.7 155.3 78.5 48.4 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.7 24.7 15.2 138.6 74.9 46.9 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 23.1 14.7 139.0 75.1 52.1 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.0 22.6 14.5 150.8 77.6 53.6 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.4 16.3 16.4 137.5 74.5 57.2 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.5 20.9 14.7 161.8 79.7 52.1 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.9 36.7 17.3 161.6 79.7 56.2 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.6 24.6 14.5 133.2 73.8 50.7 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.6 33.1 18.0 157.5 78.7 55.7 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.5 21.6 14.1 148.5 77.2 54.0 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.8 25.5 13.3 150.4 77.6 53.7 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 18.2 14.8 163.0 79.8 61.3 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.0 30.4 20.3 154.9 78.4 55.1 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 11.7 11.1 129.4 72.6 48.9 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.1 17.2 14.1 149.9 77.4 56.6 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.4 12.0 14.6 159.8 79.3 50.8 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.6 29.2 21.2 155.1 78.3 57.3 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.2 22.5 14.5 146.1 76.6 47.7 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 32.3 22.7 170.3 81.7 61.0 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.3 22.2 14.7 135.3 74.2 49.2 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.6 21.5 14.5 138.8 75.1 48.4 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.6 17.4 13.8 130.8 73.2 48.5 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.0 27.0 18.2 142.0 75.8 54.3 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.6 25.3 17.4 152.7 78.0 54.3 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.4 12.8 11.7 136.6 74.4 54.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 23.6 17.7 153.9 78.3 52.9 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.6 17.4 13.2 140.4 75.5 51.8 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.4 36.5 22.9 153.0 78.1 58.4 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.3 18.7 14.9 151.8 77.7 48.9 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------