***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.3 20.8 12.4 137.8 75.1 52.0 5.0 9.5 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 19.4 12.0 142.9 76.1 56.2 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.0 14.9 13.7 144.2 76.3 53.3 4.1 7.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.6 24.3 11.9 144.3 76.5 50.1 4.8 9.7 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.2 23.7 12.6 161.4 79.4 52.6 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.3 26.4 14.3 149.7 77.4 53.0 3.4 8.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.8 13.5 11.6 137.1 74.9 57.5 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.6 37.5 15.2 179.7 82.5 54.1 6.5 12.7 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.2 17.8 14.8 171.6 81.1 54.8 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 17.3 24.5 16.9 176.6 82.0 55.4 4.5 8.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.0 19.6 11.8 180.8 82.5 53.3 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.0 30.9 12.1 190.6 84.1 54.4 3.6 8.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.3 15.2 12.4 186.2 83.3 56.6 2.2 4.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 28.1 18.9 165.9 80.2 56.2 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.6 13.6 9.7 151.4 77.7 47.5 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 16.8 12.2 183.8 82.9 54.8 2.2 4.8 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.4 15.3 11.0 128.1 72.9 56.6 4.7 8.2 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.5 22.1 20.6 171.0 81.1 57.6 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 18.5 12.9 150.5 77.5 55.6 4.8 8.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 19.1 17.9 157.1 78.7 57.6 5.0 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.1 15.4 14.1 159.0 79.1 52.5 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 19.9 13.5 151.1 77.6 56.8 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.2 18.4 14.3 162.8 79.7 55.3 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.1 20.0 18.9 170.1 80.9 56.7 4.9 8.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.7 17.9 13.1 141.7 75.9 51.0 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.5 17.7 10.5 192.9 84.4 53.6 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.3 26.4 12.7 133.6 74.3 53.1 4.5 10.4 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.7 18.0 11.8 156.6 78.6 50.4 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 26.3 20.7 163.8 80.0 58.3 7.7 12.5 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.6 19.2 12.6 145.7 76.7 55.8 4.6 8.5 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------