***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.1 15.1 7.1 91.8 64.2 42.5 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 10.7 6.7 103.7 66.9 44.0 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 17.3 9.0 118.7 70.9 45.1 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.5 18.4 7.5 105.2 67.6 42.2 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.6 13.4 7.8 110.2 69.3 41.6 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.5 13.7 8.5 104.3 66.9 44.7 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.8 13.0 6.5 95.3 64.8 43.1 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.7 17.5 9.8 106.5 67.6 43.1 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.9 13.6 8.9 110.4 69.4 42.4 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 22.1 10.9 112.4 69.6 44.7 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.1 13.5 7.3 114.0 70.0 39.8 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.8 13.4 7.1 104.0 66.8 40.2 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.2 12.4 8.3 119.5 70.9 42.2 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.6 24.1 13.1 125.0 72.5 47.0 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.0 8.4 5.5 104.8 67.0 39.1 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.6 11.8 8.1 123.2 72.0 41.7 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.4 6.5 103.3 66.5 47.0 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 18.6 12.8 110.3 68.9 48.1 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.3 18.3 7.5 112.9 69.2 44.4 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.6 12.3 99.4 64.8 47.5 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 15.0 8.4 112.0 69.8 41.7 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 18.0 8.1 118.5 70.7 48.1 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.5 16.3 8.9 123.1 71.8 44.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 21.1 12.1 124.9 72.3 47.7 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 15.5 7.8 103.6 67.3 43.9 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.5 13.2 6.3 105.2 67.1 42.3 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.5 13.0 7.6 93.6 64.7 43.6 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.2 15.4 7.3 110.0 68.7 40.2 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 21.8 13.3 108.8 68.1 48.8 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.9 16.3 7.2 103.0 66.9 42.9 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------