***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 58.6 77.5 49.1 123.1 70.4 58.5 32.7 49.5 70.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 62.3 69.4 46.2 136.3 74.9 63.0 31.3 44.0 58.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 53.9 70.4 50.5 127.3 71.8 59.1 33.3 47.0 63.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 60.7 72.7 42.5 113.3 66.5 53.8 33.6 51.2 71.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 53.0 65.1 45.0 119.7 69.1 55.1 31.2 45.0 61.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 52.6 62.1 48.4 112.7 65.8 53.7 29.9 44.6 62.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 61.2 68.0 46.0 133.6 73.9 63.6 29.0 42.0 57.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 84.6 106.4 56.3 128.1 72.5 56.0 55.9 74.8 95.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 50.4 64.8 50.9 124.3 70.8 56.9 28.1 42.2 58.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 69.3 91.8 60.5 128.1 72.5 57.2 41.7 59.8 81.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 47.3 62.0 43.6 125.4 71.2 55.5 26.1 39.4 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 57.9 76.7 42.5 126.4 71.6 56.1 31.4 48.0 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 34.9 48.3 43.7 125.1 71.0 57.8 17.6 28.7 42.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 75.9 103.2 68.6 136.8 75.4 60.8 48.5 66.6 87.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 16.7 45.4 33.4 113.9 66.9 52.6 15.7 27.9 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 38.8 52.0 43.5 127.2 71.8 57.5 21.2 32.2 45.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 59.3 67.3 46.2 140.2 76.0 65.7 34.1 45.1 57.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 66.5 84.6 69.8 127.3 72.3 57.7 45.0 59.8 76.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 71.4 79.1 47.6 135.3 74.7 62.3 36.1 50.7 67.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 61.1 74.9 67.3 122.3 70.5 55.5 40.8 54.4 69.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 52.9 68.7 49.6 124.7 70.9 57.3 30.8 44.9 61.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 69.3 77.7 49.3 138.7 75.5 64.7 38.6 51.7 66.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 64.3 70.4 50.7 135.4 74.8 62.3 36.0 47.7 60.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 64.6 87.1 63.3 131.5 73.5 59.1 39.0 55.8 75.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 55.7 68.0 50.3 119.7 69.1 56.7 33.5 47.5 64.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 20.8 47.7 33.7 118.5 68.5 54.4 21.0 31.9 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 64.9 79.8 51.6 121.6 69.7 58.0 40.4 56.3 74.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 46.7 57.2 40.4 116.1 67.7 54.3 24.4 38.3 55.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 87.0 107.3 71.9 125.9 71.9 56.9 60.4 78.6 98.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 68.5 74.3 47.2 132.0 73.5 61.5 36.2 49.5 65.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------