***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.7 17.8 -0.7 37.0 39.0 14.5 15.3 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 13.6 14.3 17.9 -0.6 38.2 39.2 14.0 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 15.7 16.2 17.6 -0.8 35.2 37.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 10.6 10.7 15.5 -1.2 26.1 29.4 11.2 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 12.4 12.7 15.4 -1.1 28.8 31.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.0 14.2 -0.6 37.6 39.7 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.7 17.9 -0.7 37.9 39.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.6 6.9 13.7 -0.9 32.6 35.3 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 13.6 13.9 15.7 -1.1 29.7 32.5 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 13.6 13.9 14.1 -1.0 30.6 33.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 13.5 13.8 15.2 -0.9 32.5 35.0 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.6 14.7 -0.8 33.3 35.8 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.7 13.1 14.5 -0.7 35.5 37.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 14.4 14.7 15.7 -0.9 32.4 34.3 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 15.1 15.1 16.1 -1.3 23.8 27.4 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.2 15.1 -0.8 33.7 36.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 14.5 15.1 17.6 -0.6 38.5 39.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.5 -0.9 32.1 34.7 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.8 14.4 17.8 -0.7 37.7 38.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.3 11.9 -0.7 36.0 38.2 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 13.5 13.8 16.7 -1.0 31.4 34.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.7 14.1 17.3 -0.7 36.1 37.4 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 13.4 13.8 17.3 -0.8 35.6 37.1 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 13.9 14.4 15.5 -0.9 32.2 34.5 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.1 -0.9 32.6 35.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 12.5 12.8 14.5 -0.7 33.9 36.5 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.8 16.9 -0.7 36.0 38.0 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.8 15.9 -1.2 25.7 29.0 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 10.7 11.1 12.9 -0.8 34.0 36.1 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 14.1 14.7 18.0 -0.7 37.9 39.2 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------