***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.1 18.5 -0.4 40.8 43.2 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.2 18.8 -0.2 45.4 46.9 14.5 15.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.2 18.5 -0.4 42.2 44.3 16.7 17.6 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 11.6 11.7 16.4 -0.9 30.4 34.8 11.9 13.0 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.2 16.2 -0.7 33.9 37.7 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 12.1 12.5 14.8 -0.5 38.1 41.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.6 18.9 -0.3 44.3 46.0 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.8 14.5 -0.6 37.0 40.3 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.4 -0.7 34.4 37.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.6 14.9 -0.7 35.1 38.5 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.5 16.0 -0.6 37.5 40.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.5 15.5 -0.5 38.0 41.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.7 15.1 -0.5 36.9 40.2 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.5 16.5 -0.5 39.5 41.8 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 15.4 15.5 16.9 -1.1 27.0 31.7 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 14.4 14.9 15.8 -0.6 36.6 40.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.3 18.4 -0.2 45.5 46.9 15.7 16.6 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.0 14.2 -0.6 37.2 39.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.4 18.7 -0.2 45.7 47.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.1 12.7 -0.4 41.9 44.0 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.1 14.5 17.5 -0.6 36.2 39.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 18.1 -0.3 43.4 45.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.7 18.2 -0.3 44.0 45.6 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.1 16.2 -0.5 38.8 41.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.4 16.8 -0.6 35.9 39.4 14.3 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.0 -0.6 35.3 39.1 13.4 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.6 17.6 -0.5 39.2 41.8 14.1 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.1 13.2 16.7 -1.0 28.7 33.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.0 13.7 -0.5 39.4 41.5 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.7 18.9 -0.3 44.8 46.3 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------