***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 18.9 -0.3 42.8 44.8 15.2 16.0 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.5 19.1 -0.2 45.8 47.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.3 17.5 18.8 -0.4 42.2 44.2 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.0 16.7 -1.0 26.6 31.3 12.5 13.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.1 16.5 -0.8 31.9 36.1 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 12.1 12.3 15.0 -0.7 31.3 36.1 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 19.2 -0.2 45.4 46.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.0 14.6 -0.8 31.7 36.2 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.7 16.7 -0.7 34.7 38.5 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.4 15.1 -0.8 32.9 36.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.1 16.2 -0.6 34.3 38.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.4 15.8 -0.7 32.9 37.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 13.3 13.5 15.4 -0.6 33.3 36.8 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.3 16.7 -0.7 35.8 38.9 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 15.4 15.3 17.2 -1.2 22.1 27.1 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 14.3 14.6 16.1 -0.7 31.8 36.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.5 18.6 -0.2 45.6 47.1 15.9 16.7 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.3 -0.7 33.3 36.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.6 19.0 -0.3 45.0 46.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 8.5 8.8 12.8 -0.8 32.5 35.8 8.9 9.6 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.6 17.9 -0.6 37.0 40.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.1 18.3 -0.3 43.3 45.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.8 18.5 -0.4 42.0 43.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.1 16.5 -0.6 36.2 39.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.5 17.1 -0.6 36.6 39.8 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 13.3 13.6 15.3 -0.7 31.8 35.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.8 18.0 -0.4 41.0 43.3 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 12.9 12.8 17.0 -1.1 23.4 28.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 11.6 12.1 13.8 -0.7 33.6 36.6 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 19.3 -0.2 45.4 46.6 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------