***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.1 15.2 18.1 -0.6 32.3 34.5 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.5 14.7 18.2 -0.6 33.2 35.5 14.7 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 16.7 16.7 18.0 -0.7 30.8 33.1 16.8 17.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 11.7 11.5 15.8 -1.2 15.5 18.8 12.3 12.9 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 13.0 12.9 15.8 -1.0 20.3 23.5 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.4 -0.7 26.5 30.2 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.1 18.3 -0.6 32.3 34.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 7.6 7.6 14.0 -0.8 24.6 28.0 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.1 -1.0 21.6 24.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 14.2 14.2 14.5 -0.9 22.3 25.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 14.0 14.0 15.5 -0.9 23.0 26.5 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 12.1 12.1 15.0 -0.8 25.2 28.7 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.4 14.8 -0.7 25.2 28.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 14.9 14.9 15.9 -0.9 23.4 26.4 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 15.4 15.0 16.6 -1.4 11.9 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 14.5 14.5 15.4 -0.8 23.2 27.0 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.5 15.6 17.8 -0.6 32.1 34.6 15.7 16.2 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.5 13.6 -0.9 22.7 26.1 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 14.8 14.9 18.1 -0.6 32.6 34.9 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.7 12.1 -0.7 26.6 29.7 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 14.1 14.1 17.2 -0.9 24.4 27.0 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.4 17.5 -0.8 28.4 31.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.3 17.7 -0.7 29.3 31.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 14.6 14.5 15.8 -0.9 23.8 26.9 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 14.2 14.2 16.5 -0.8 25.1 28.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 13.4 13.4 14.7 -0.7 25.9 29.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 14.2 14.3 17.3 -0.6 30.1 32.6 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 13.0 12.7 16.2 -1.3 14.0 17.4 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 11.6 11.6 13.1 -0.8 24.2 27.6 11.9 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.1 15.2 18.4 -0.6 33.5 35.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------