***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 27.7 27.8 27.4 -1.5 29.6 31.6 28.0 29.0 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.1 27.2 27.4 -1.5 30.5 32.3 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.0 27.3 27.7 -1.3 32.7 34.5 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 19.5 19.6 25.3 -1.7 27.7 29.6 20.1 21.6 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.7 27.9 26.3 -1.2 35.1 36.5 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.1 24.5 -0.4 44.2 44.5 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 26.7 26.8 27.1 -1.7 27.6 29.6 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.0 24.6 -0.9 38.5 39.6 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.1 27.3 27.0 -1.2 34.5 36.1 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.8 27.3 25.4 -1.0 37.0 38.3 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.1 27.6 26.2 -0.9 38.1 39.2 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.0 25.8 -0.7 40.5 41.3 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.2 25.8 -0.7 41.1 41.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.0 -1.4 31.7 33.8 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 27.1 27.2 26.7 -2.1 21.0 23.3 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.0 28.6 26.2 -0.8 39.6 40.6 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 26.2 26.2 26.7 -1.7 26.7 28.8 26.6 27.7 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.1 26.5 24.4 -1.1 36.6 38.1 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 26.6 26.8 27.4 -1.4 31.4 33.2 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.3 22.6 -0.8 39.6 40.6 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.3 27.4 27.6 -1.4 32.6 34.2 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 26.4 26.5 26.4 -1.9 24.2 26.5 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.7 26.9 27.3 -1.4 31.4 33.4 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.3 26.7 26.1 -1.3 34.0 35.7 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 26.8 27.0 26.0 -1.8 27.3 29.1 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.0 27.8 25.4 -0.7 40.4 41.2 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 26.6 26.7 26.6 -1.6 27.9 29.9 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.7 26.2 -1.7 27.8 29.6 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 21.8 23.6 -1.0 37.6 39.0 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.9 27.0 27.5 -1.5 30.4 32.3 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------