***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.2 28.3 -0.8 39.0 40.2 26.8 27.9 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.4 28.6 -0.5 43.3 43.8 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.1 28.4 -0.7 40.6 41.6 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.3 19.4 26.6 -1.4 31.5 33.8 19.5 20.8 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.1 26.6 -1.1 35.2 37.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.2 24.6 -0.7 38.7 40.5 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.3 28.5 -0.6 42.7 43.3 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.3 25.1 -0.8 38.8 40.8 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.0 26.8 -1.0 36.6 38.3 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.1 26.9 25.6 -0.9 38.0 39.8 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.0 26.2 -0.9 38.0 39.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 27.5 26.4 26.2 -0.7 39.7 41.5 26.0 27.1 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.4 25.7 -0.7 39.3 41.2 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 27.9 27.1 26.5 -0.6 41.8 42.9 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 27.3 27.4 27.0 -1.5 29.2 31.6 27.7 28.9 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 29.3 27.9 26.1 -0.9 37.4 39.3 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.0 28.3 -0.5 44.1 44.3 26.3 27.4 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.2 26.1 24.9 -0.7 40.5 42.0 25.6 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 27.8 27.0 28.6 -0.5 43.5 44.1 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.9 21.8 22.9 -0.6 41.3 43.1 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.0 27.7 -1.0 36.6 38.1 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.3 28.0 -0.6 42.1 42.7 26.7 27.9 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.2 28.2 -0.5 43.3 44.0 26.6 27.6 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 27.5 26.6 26.5 -0.7 40.9 42.0 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.0 26.6 -1.1 35.4 37.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.1 25.7 -0.8 38.3 40.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.0 26.7 27.4 -0.9 38.4 39.6 26.3 27.5 28.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.8 -1.4 30.3 32.7 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.5 23.9 -0.6 41.7 43.2 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.2 28.7 -0.6 42.6 43.2 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------