***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.9 28.0 28.8 -0.8 33.3 35.0 28.0 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.0 29.0 -0.6 39.1 40.5 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.8 27.8 28.9 -0.8 35.5 37.0 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 20.3 20.4 26.9 -1.4 22.8 24.9 21.0 21.8 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 27.8 28.1 27.2 -1.0 29.8 31.4 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 26.7 27.0 25.1 -0.7 33.9 35.4 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.7 27.8 28.9 -0.6 37.5 39.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.2 16.3 25.5 -0.8 33.8 35.1 16.3 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 27.5 27.7 27.5 -1.0 31.4 32.9 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.3 27.5 26.1 -0.8 33.2 34.5 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.6 27.8 26.9 -0.8 33.7 35.1 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.9 27.2 26.7 -0.7 35.6 36.8 27.1 27.8 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.0 28.3 26.3 -0.7 34.5 35.8 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.4 27.6 27.0 -0.8 34.5 36.1 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 28.2 28.0 27.6 -1.6 17.8 20.4 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.5 28.8 26.7 -0.8 32.6 34.1 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.4 28.6 -0.6 38.4 40.0 27.2 27.9 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.6 26.8 25.3 -0.8 34.7 36.0 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.3 27.6 29.0 -0.6 39.2 40.6 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 22.4 22.6 23.4 -0.7 35.3 36.6 22.5 23.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.3 -1.0 30.6 32.2 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.7 27.7 28.3 -0.8 35.1 36.9 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.5 27.7 28.7 -0.6 38.0 39.4 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.0 27.3 27.0 -0.8 34.6 36.0 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 27.5 27.7 27.1 -1.2 26.9 28.8 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 27.8 27.9 26.3 -0.8 32.2 33.9 28.0 28.7 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.3 27.4 27.9 -0.9 31.2 33.0 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 28.3 28.3 27.3 -1.5 21.4 23.8 28.9 29.7 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.1 24.3 -0.7 35.4 36.7 22.0 22.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.8 29.1 -0.6 38.1 39.5 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------