***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 20.7 25.0 18.7 150.0 77.5 66.4 6.0 10.9 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 17.9 19.0 15.4 122.9 70.8 63.1 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 11.0 13.2 12.9 97.9 62.9 54.8 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.0 10.8 70.5 52.0 43.7 4.4 8.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.0 5.8 10.0 62.8 49.8 42.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.9 9.7 61.5 46.4 36.5 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 18.7 22.6 18.9 148.2 77.2 68.9 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.8 9.8 9.1 54.3 41.4 34.5 7.2 13.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.5 6.5 9.9 61.8 48.4 40.3 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.0 9.4 10.8 60.9 46.3 39.0 5.5 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.7 8.4 58.0 46.4 38.7 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.0 6.1 7.4 53.7 43.3 35.1 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.3 8.7 60.6 46.5 37.7 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.4 17.9 14.3 89.2 59.1 51.1 6.9 13.2 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.5 10.8 85.8 57.8 48.5 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.7 8.1 58.5 45.9 38.3 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 18.0 19.9 16.5 132.7 73.5 65.3 3.8 8.1 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.8 11.4 13.6 73.2 51.8 44.0 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 10.8 14.2 13.0 102.1 64.8 58.2 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 6.5 9.8 10.4 56.4 40.8 34.6 7.5 12.9 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.9 12.3 86.0 58.6 49.2 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 16.6 17.0 14.4 118.6 69.7 62.6 4.4 8.9 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 11.4 12.9 11.4 84.1 58.3 52.4 5.0 9.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.5 13.5 80.8 56.1 48.0 5.8 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.1 13.5 17.8 114.1 67.3 58.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.1 6.9 57.0 43.4 32.6 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 22.7 27.6 21.8 150.5 77.6 67.4 7.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.3 9.3 69.1 51.0 42.5 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.6 14.0 13.3 71.0 49.8 42.1 7.2 14.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 17.4 18.5 15.9 127.3 71.9 63.6 6.4 10.6 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------