***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.7 7.8 73.8 58.6 41.0 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.8 9.6 85.2 61.3 43.3 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.4 15.5 9.0 88.0 62.7 48.6 4.0 9.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.4 11.2 6.8 62.9 53.6 37.6 4.2 9.6 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.4 7.7 70.2 57.2 40.2 5.6 11.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.4 15.7 12.1 89.8 62.4 47.0 5.0 10.0 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.5 9.0 79.4 58.9 41.5 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.5 22.1 9.7 76.7 58.3 42.6 9.1 17.0 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.1 8.4 70.2 57.8 38.7 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 18.2 10.4 72.1 57.3 40.3 7.3 14.3 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.9 13.0 7.0 75.6 58.3 38.9 5.0 9.9 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.3 15.4 7.0 79.8 59.5 42.9 5.9 11.4 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.5 8.3 81.1 59.6 44.1 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.4 19.3 13.4 90.4 62.9 46.2 6.7 12.7 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.7 7.4 78.1 59.1 41.1 2.5 5.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.2 12.9 7.3 77.8 58.3 41.9 6.2 10.3 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.7 9.0 80.1 60.2 41.8 2.8 5.0 7.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 14.2 76.8 58.9 45.7 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.5 14.9 9.9 90.8 62.9 45.3 4.6 9.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 14.9 13.4 74.4 56.3 44.0 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.8 7.2 72.0 58.2 40.9 4.3 9.3 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.6 14.1 9.0 81.3 60.0 42.8 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.3 10.5 98.1 65.3 47.5 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.6 16.4 12.8 85.2 61.8 47.2 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.5 11.8 9.6 71.0 57.4 42.1 4.0 9.0 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.1 6.2 84.1 59.5 40.3 3.9 6.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.4 9.6 72.1 57.5 41.7 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.1 10.2 6.6 71.5 56.8 39.2 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.7 14.3 75.6 57.4 44.5 12.1 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.5 9.5 86.5 61.4 44.2 3.6 7.9 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------