***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.6 10.5 5.9 76.7 58.1 35.0 3.9 8.0 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 11.7 6.9 85.2 61.0 41.3 4.4 8.1 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.9 6.5 87.1 61.3 41.6 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.3 6.0 74.6 56.6 38.8 3.5 7.8 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.8 5.8 72.4 55.5 39.9 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.4 11.8 83.2 61.2 44.3 2.6 6.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.9 7.8 95.3 64.5 43.4 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.8 9.5 85.0 60.3 46.8 5.7 11.3 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.4 6.3 77.4 57.2 39.0 3.8 6.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.1 9.6 85.9 60.8 45.3 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.2 5.8 75.0 57.0 42.3 2.4 5.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.4 6.3 77.5 57.5 42.2 3.2 7.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.1 8.2 83.0 60.0 43.7 1.6 4.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.0 12.2 9.9 86.5 61.1 42.9 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.6 6.4 94.3 63.8 40.7 2.4 4.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.6 5.0 7.1 84.2 60.4 43.4 1.4 3.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.5 7.0 87.1 61.9 41.3 4.6 8.1 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.0 13.4 97.3 64.1 47.9 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.7 6.4 80.3 59.5 40.3 4.5 8.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.1 13.8 91.9 61.9 49.4 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.1 6.7 5.2 73.0 55.1 35.1 3.4 5.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.1 5.7 66.4 54.4 38.5 4.1 7.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.3 8.5 6.7 81.6 59.8 40.1 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.8 10.3 96.5 64.0 45.8 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.8 6.7 73.1 55.9 39.3 3.8 7.3 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.2 5.5 76.9 56.0 40.6 2.2 4.9 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.0 11.5 7.2 76.3 57.5 37.8 3.7 8.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.6 6.7 84.9 60.8 40.1 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 14.6 14.1 96.9 64.0 49.4 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.3 6.9 87.0 61.6 41.8 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------