***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 3.1 26.4 7.1 144.9 76.5 42.3 3.5 8.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.9 16.5 8.6 144.7 76.5 44.3 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.6 26.6 8.6 164.1 80.0 47.4 3.5 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.5 34.9 8.8 189.8 83.6 47.8 4.3 9.5 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 21.6 8.6 179.8 82.2 48.2 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.6 30.4 12.7 180.0 82.2 49.4 4.3 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 18.6 8.5 136.8 75.0 41.7 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 32.1 10.8 168.1 80.5 55.8 4.7 10.2 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.4 21.8 8.6 165.1 80.1 47.6 2.6 6.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 29.5 10.7 157.5 78.8 53.1 4.8 10.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 23.6 8.1 203.3 85.4 50.0 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.6 31.0 8.3 199.2 85.0 53.3 3.3 7.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 22.8 9.3 213.2 86.9 51.5 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.3 33.6 13.0 166.9 80.3 55.3 4.0 9.7 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.7 27.7 8.2 224.4 87.9 45.2 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.9 20.1 8.4 213.6 86.8 48.7 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.9 19.4 8.3 124.4 72.5 42.2 4.0 8.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 27.4 13.9 156.7 78.7 54.9 4.8 9.8 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 27.0 8.6 150.6 77.6 45.5 3.9 9.0 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.8 19.6 14.0 158.1 79.0 56.6 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.8 24.9 7.6 168.8 80.7 46.7 3.8 8.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.0 22.1 8.3 122.1 72.2 45.1 5.1 10.3 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 21.0 8.8 153.6 78.1 47.4 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 29.2 12.2 161.0 79.4 53.6 3.6 8.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.2 25.2 8.7 154.6 78.2 47.3 3.6 8.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.0 36.7 7.9 239.1 90.7 51.9 3.8 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.4 20.2 8.3 141.5 75.8 44.1 3.5 7.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 4.1 32.2 8.5 214.7 86.5 46.2 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.1 35.9 14.7 161.4 79.4 56.4 5.4 11.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.3 23.3 8.7 155.7 78.5 45.0 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------