***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 58.2 70.6 39.5 111.0 65.3 58.7 32.7 50.1 71.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 49.5 55.9 40.5 107.0 63.4 55.7 32.0 44.3 58.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 54.8 58.6 37.0 102.3 61.1 54.0 33.6 47.8 64.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 61.3 55.3 32.5 83.5 52.7 47.0 34.4 51.9 73.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 52.2 45.0 32.2 81.0 51.9 45.9 29.2 43.3 60.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 55.2 53.5 46.3 91.7 56.7 49.4 31.1 46.4 64.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 47.5 58.7 44.2 114.8 66.9 58.9 29.1 42.1 57.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 81.6 74.1 39.1 83.2 51.5 46.5 52.4 72.3 95.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.4 43.2 33.3 80.4 51.1 44.5 28.1 42.3 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 69.4 60.9 41.6 82.7 51.4 45.9 40.6 59.0 81.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.7 39.7 29.3 82.7 52.7 45.4 22.9 37.1 54.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 53.6 47.9 28.9 83.2 52.9 46.7 27.9 44.5 66.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 35.6 34.2 34.5 89.0 55.4 49.0 18.4 29.8 44.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 74.8 78.9 50.6 100.9 60.2 53.5 48.5 66.2 87.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 40.0 43.1 32.8 101.1 61.1 52.0 18.7 31.9 49.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 36.8 34.2 30.9 86.7 54.6 47.6 18.9 30.4 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 48.9 54.6 40.8 106.4 63.0 55.3 33.6 44.6 57.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 66.2 64.5 55.1 92.3 56.0 50.1 42.7 58.3 76.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 58.2 63.4 37.8 101.4 61.1 53.8 37.5 52.1 68.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 58.7 53.9 51.6 85.6 51.5 47.0 39.1 52.5 68.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 53.5 51.4 32.3 90.2 56.0 49.1 30.9 45.4 62.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 58.1 60.7 37.4 96.9 58.6 52.2 39.9 53.3 68.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 52.7 55.1 37.3 98.0 59.9 53.4 35.8 47.4 60.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 63.9 64.7 48.8 97.5 58.8 52.0 38.0 54.7 74.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 54.0 56.6 42.9 96.9 59.0 54.0 33.7 47.9 64.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 38.9 36.1 26.6 88.6 54.9 47.8 21.0 32.3 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 63.6 73.5 46.9 108.9 64.2 58.8 39.6 56.3 76.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.5 46.9 31.2 90.0 55.9 48.0 27.7 41.6 58.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 85.8 82.9 56.4 92.1 55.6 50.2 58.0 76.4 96.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 54.0 62.7 41.0 110.8 65.1 57.6 35.0 48.5 63.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------